The Ottawa Citizen
Glen McGregor

In poker, it's called a semi-bluff: a player with a good, but not great, hand bets big in the hope of scaring opponents into folding.

The same strategy played out this week on Parliament Hill as Ottawa-area MPs combined forces and threatened to impose back-to-work legislation, bolstered by all-party support they were not certain they'd get.

The gambit worked and under the threat of the legislation, the City of Ottawa and striking employees represented by the Amalgamated Transit Union local 279 effectively folded their hands and agreed to binding arbitration, bringing the strike to an end.

The week leading up to this power play begins with a discouraging sign on Monday morning, as Transport Minister and Ottawa West-Nepean MP John Baird casts doubt on a city plan to settle concerns about driver scheduling with changes to the federal safety rules for commercial drivers.

At a pre-budget press conference, Mr. Baird tells reporters he is open to changing the rules, but warns the process could take weeks or months.

With negotiations between the city and the union on-going, Mr. Baird is wary of saying anything that could jeopardize the process. He knows the safety issue has landed on his desk because of the strike and he doesn't want to move on it under that circumstance.

Later in the day, Mr. Baird meets in his Hill office with Ottawa Mayor Larry O'Brien and Councillor Alex Cullen. Mr. Baird tells the mayor changes to the safety rules will take a long time. Back-to-work legislation is conspicuously not discussed. Mr. Baird knows any sign it is even under consideration could influence the negotiations.

On Tuesday, MPs are tightly focused on Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's budget, to be released that afternoon. If it doesn't pass opposition muster, the government will fall and could keep parliament from intervening in the transit strike.

With hopes of a negotiated settlement fading, Ottawa Centre NDP MP Paul Dewar writes to federal Labour Minister Rona Ambrose and asks her to invite the two sides to binding arbitration.

Mr. Dewar, with union experience from his school-teacher days, has been in contact with ATU officials and is pushing them to accept binding arbitration. In an opinion piece published in the Citizen on the weekend, Mr. Dewar called for arbitration without conditions, and now wants Ms. Ambrose to do the same.

Later that day, a break point: negotiations between the city and the union fail once again. A deal is no closer.

Mr. Baird realizes the government has to act. He has read the increasingly bleak stories about people walking hours to work in the extreme cold. His office is deluged with phone calls and e-mails. Some bus drivers are remortgaging their homes, he hears.

Ms. Ambrose is also growing pessimistic. She has heard from the federal mediator how poorly the talks were going before they broke off and believes there is little chance for a negotiated settlement.

On Wednesday morning, with uncertainty over the budget ebbing, Mr. Baird is in contact with cabinet colleagues and Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Mr. Harper agrees it is time to intervene.

That morning, a few blocks from the Hill, a federal labour board is hearing arguments from the union and the city about declaring OC Transpo an essential service. Despite nearly 3,000 submissions from the public on the issue, both sides tell the Canada Industrial Relations Board that a disruption to the bus service does not pose an imminent threat to public health and safety. Before lunch, the board concurs and issues a ruling -- OC Transpo is not an essential service. Another potential solution to the strike fizzles.

After the decision, Mr. Baird meets with ATU officials, but he emerges with little hope an end to the strike is any closer.

That afternoon, in a preparatory session for the daily question period in the House, Ms. Ambrose raises the issue of back-to-work legislation with the prime minister. Mr. Harper is concerned about the all-party support needed to get the bill through the House. He tells her to start reaching out to the opposition.

Shortly after, Ottawa-Vanier Liberal MP Mauril Bélanger approaches Mr. Baird before question period and, as a courtesy, tells him he plans to introduce a motion calling for an emergency debate on the transit strike, scheduled for Thursday evening. The channel between Mr. Bélanger and Mr. Baird had been opened several weeks earlier at the World Junior Hockey championship, when they agreed to keep in touch on the strike.

After question period, Ms. Ambrose walks across the floor of the Commons chamber to talk to Liberal labour critic Maria Minna. Ms. Ambrose sounds her out about back-to-work legislation. Ms. Minna says she needs more information on how the law would work.

Then, Ms. Ambrose goes public and says for the first time she will move ahead with legislating an end to the strike. The file is moving quickly.

Discussions between Mr. Bélanger, Mr. Dewar and Mr. Baird pick up. Despite their adversarial roles, the three MPs have stayed on good terms and in regular contact throughout the strike. Phone lines buzz between their offices as they figure out what sort of legislation will be acceptable and how they'll sell it to their parties.

On Thursday morning, Mr. Bélanger and Ms. Minna meet with Ms. Ambrose to feel out each other's positions. Ms. Ambrose also speaks by phone to NDP labour critic Chris Charlton. The sales pitch is on.

Before the 2:15 p.m. question period that afternoon, Mr. Dewar approaches Ms. Ambrose in the Commons lobby and tells her he's willing to support legislation if it includes binding arbitration without conditions. He doesn't want the government imposing terms of a contract on the union. She says she will take his message to a cabinet meeting scheduled for later that afternoon, where she intends to seek a green-light to introduce the back-to-work law.

An hour later, Mr. Dewar emerges from question period and, in a scrum with reporters, says he will support back-to-work legislation if the city and union do not both accept arbitration. He won't give a time line, but suggests the axe could fall in a day or two. The two sides can agree to arbitration now or we can do it there, he says, gesturing with his thumb to the Commons chamber behind him.

Mr. Dewar's threat turns out to be a key turning point. The NDP were seen as a potential roadblock to getting the all-party support the government needed to push the legislation through the House quickly. Now it looks like the New Democrats are ready to back the bill.

At this point, however, Mr. Dewar has yet to convince his own caucus to support the bill. Having Mr. Charlton's support will help him sell it, but the NDP is a strong supporter of organized labour, and Mr. Dewar isn't yet certain his colleagues will back him on a bill they have not yet seen. Days earlier, the provincial NDP in Ontario had held up an attempt to impose back-to-work legislation on striking teachers at York University.

If Mr. Dewar is uncertain, he doesn't betray it to reporters.

Moments later, Liberal MP David McGuinty speaks to the media. Echoing the call from his brother, Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty, Mr. McGuinty says the government must move with a back-to-work law immediately.

Everyone is in and the MPs are showing a strong hand.

Mr. Dewar gets back on the phones. He calls ATU vice-president Randy Graham and strongly encourages him to agree to binding arbitration. Then he starts working his caucus colleagues.

An aide in Mr. Dewar's office calls City Hall officials. The bill is coming, he warns. It's just a matter of when.

In poker terms, they've gone all-in.

The mayor has a press conference scheduled for 3:30 p.m. but it is delayed. There are more negotiations going on, Mr. Dewar's office learns. A good sign.

Meanwhile, Ms. Ambrose and Mr. Baird are in a cabinet meeting discussing the legislation. The cabinet agrees to move ahead at 6:30 p.m. that night, heading off Mr. Bélanger's emergency debate. The mechanics of getting back-to-work legislation pushed through the House are tricky, and the Bloc is a question mark. Leader Gilles Duceppe had already suggested that his party, also traditionally sympathetic to labour, might not support ordering the drivers back to work. But the Conservatives have talked to the Bloc on the back channel and are confident they will let the bill pass "on division" -- effectively registering opposition to it but allowing it through on a voice vote.

To become law, however, the bill has to get through the Senate. The government leader in the Senate, Marjory LeBreton, leaves the cabinet meeting to start preparing. She tells the Senate speaker to be ready for a vote in the Upper Chamber late Thursday night or Friday morning. Draft copies of the back-to-work law are printed.

Mr. Dewar now must take the issue to his caucus, which is meeting at that hour, just down the hall from the House of Commons.

Mr. Baird is leaving the cabinet meeting when he hears from his chief of staff. Chris Froggatt has just spoken to city manager Kent Kirkpatrick. The draft legislation Mr. Baird carries won't be needed, after all. Faced with all-party support for a legislated end to the strike, the union and the city has agreed to binding arbitration.

The semi-bluff has worked. After 51 days, and one intense week, it's finally over.